Riveting stuff from Eric Kaufmann on Europe and the unlikelihood for it to have a Muslim majority in the next two centuries:
I don’t foresee a Muslim-majority Europe in this century or in the next. Why? Mainly because Muslim birthrates are plunging both in Europe and the Muslim world. Already, Iran, Tunisia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and several other Muslim countries have replacement-level fertility or below. In the UK, Bangladeshi and Pakistani fertility has halved in a generation and is now under 3 children per woman. This means their long-term growth will begin to tail off. The other part of the equation is the rise of non-Muslim immigrant groups (African and West Indian Christians, Hindus, Buddhists and other Eastern faiths) who are also increasing and therefore making Europe more plural and, in the process, rendering it harder for Muslims to increase their share of the population.
I'm not sure that this information will reassure either Mark Steyn or Christopher Caldwell because their belief in Eurabia has become a question of faith and history shows that it is fruitless to reason with the fanatics.
Reality strikes again. Lucky the neocons/neofascists are immune to it!
Posted by: Craig | Thursday, 15 April 2010 at 01:11 PM